Simulation of climate change impacts on the New Zealand energy system
Electricity underpins every facet of our lives, and impacts our social and economic well-being. Climate change is expected to cause significant changes to both the demand and supply sides of electricity.
Climate change is having, and will have, a range of impacts, including physical impacts (for example, sea-level rise or changing temperatures), socioeconomic impacts (climate change will impact different social groups in different ways), and environmental impacts, including how climate change will impact our natural environment.
If we can understand how climate change will impact New Zealand, we can plan for it more effectively. This involves taking a ‘big picture’ view. We need to explore how the many and varied impacts of climate change will interact with each other.
Our programme is aiming to make sure that New Zealanders can properly consider and evaluate key impacts of climate change. Our research into the impacts of climate change will also feed into and be informed by the emerging New Zealand Earth System Model.
We’re also aiming to make sure communities, end-users and stakeholders consider climate change in multiple contexts and make robust decisions about adaptation.
Further, we need to better understand the institutions that facilitate climate change adaptation. Our research is looking into historical responses to environmental threats and at the way climate-sensitive decisions are currently being made.
The purpose of the Deep South Challenge is to produce knowledge that New Zealand communities, including Māori, industry and government groups can use to plan for, and adapt to, climate change. It’s therefore crucial that these groups are involved in framing the research itself – we need to learn which issues relating to the impacts of climate change are most important to them.
The Impacts and Implications programme is running a series of innovative stakeholder dialogues that enable the co-creation of research questions, to make sure our research directly meets stakeholder needs.
Facilitated by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, these dialogues aim to develop a shared understanding of key issues, to map current knowledge about them, to identify creative ideas to address them, and to pose well-formulated research questions. In this way, the dialogue process creates a more informed policy and research environment.
The dialogues bring together researchers, community leaders, government agencies and NGOs to formulate research questions around the following topics:
- Insurance, coastal housing and climate adaptation
- Storm water and wastewater infrastructure
- Flood-prone communities and sea-level rise
- Drought management
- Urban and freight transport
Read more about the dialogues, including possible future dialogues and how to get involved, here.
Building on existing work
The Impacts and Implications programme builds on a four-year project that finished in 2016: Climate Changes, Impacts & Implications for New Zealand. This MBIE-funded project modelled the impacts of climate change on human and natural systems, including a national integrated assessment and a series of five case studies focusing on different ecological areas in New Zealand. There is a national assessment for this body of work.
- Snow, ice and glaciers in our changing climate
- Climate impacts on the national water cycle
- National flood risks & climate change
- Drinking water, drought and climate change
Impacts on people and economic systems
- Climate change: The cascade effect
- Climate change & its effect on our agricultural land
- Stormwater, wastewater and climate change: Impacts on our economy, environment, culture and society
- Extreme weather, climate change & the EQC
- Climate change and the withdrawal of insurance in New Zealand
Adaptation and responding to climate impacts
Science lead and team
Science lead: Anita Wreford, Lincoln University
Latest news and updates
Major climate modelling effort captures New Zealand’s exceptional oceanic conditions, leading to better climate simulations
The significant effort to develop and run New Zealand’s own Earth System Model (NZESM), within the Deep South Challenge: Changing with our Climate, is leading to more realistic climate simulations for New Zealand.
The Deep South Challenge: Changing with our Climate is humbled and excited that its Kāhui Māori have agreed to share their knowledge with the Antarctic Science Platform, and to act as its Kāhui Māori (Māori advisory group) as well.
We in the Deep South Challenge have established a critical new position, the "Climate Change Knowledge Broker". This person will play a critical role in the Deep South Challenge as a translator between disciplines, enabling connections between different research programmes for maximum impact. In particular, the Climate Change Knowledge Broker will focus on making the outputs from the New Zealand Earth System Model (NZESM) and associated climate models, accessible to research in other programmes within the Challenge as well as to external stakeholders. Applications close Monday 11 May.