Programme

Droughts are economically, environmentally and socially disruptive. Currently, we don’t know the likelihood of future droughts or how they will change in location or intensity because of climate change. We also don’t know what risks these kinds of droughts might pose to our drinking water supply systems in New Zealand.

In this project, we are identifying the range of potential future droughts, by calculating daily “drought index” values into the future, for four potential climate change scenarios that could unfold.

This daily drought index provides an indication of the intensity of future drought, when droughts might start and finish, and which regions are most likely to be affected. We’re particularly interested in how often back-to-back droughts in consecutive years might occur.

Our research will provide an updated national-scale assessment of drought risk in New Zealand. We will use this information to determine the risk of whether current water supply systems might fail. We will also assess the implications of future, climate-related drought, for projected water usages and allocations.

We will be working closely with local government, which is responsible not only for the management, planning and allocation of freshwater resources but also for helping communities adapt to climate change. We will also be reviewing iwi-produced water and environmental management plans, to understand whether drought-related issues are being incorporated where possible. We’re constituting a Stakeholder Reference Group, with key input from local government and from iwi, to guide our project team towards producing the most useful outcomes.

This project in the media:
New Zealand is unprepared for more frequent drought Stuff NZ
Report: Climate change already a global health emergency NZ Herald
Drought under climate change: What Kiwis need to know now NZ Herald