Evaluating the NZESM against modern & historical observations
Assessing and validating the NZESM using modern and historic observations
The NZ Earth System Model (NZESM) is designed to simulate how our climate will change over the coming decades. It’s highly complex, modelling everything from weather systems to changes in Antarctic sea ice, ocean temperatures to stratospheric chemistry.
- Project funding: $1.1m
- Project duration: 2015-2019
The complexity of the NZESM means that any shortcomings in one component of the model can compromise the fidelity of the entire model. We’re testing the ability of the model to simulate reality by comparing its results against modern and historical observations. If, in comparison with past climate and atmospheric chemical composition data, the model accurately replicates the past, we can have increased confidence that the model includes the appropriate processes needed to simulate future changes in climate.
To gather comprehensive historical climate data about Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, our project sees scientists and historians working together to recover meteorological observations over the southern hemisphere made as far back as 1850. We’re also constructing global records on ozone and other gases that absorb or emit radiation. Ozone changes have had a major impact on New
Zealand’s climate in the past, and it’s likely this will be the case in the future.
With these datasets, we can thoroughly test the NZESM and, in doing so, contribute to more accurate simulations of our future climate.
Stefanie Kremser, Bodeker Scientific: email@example.com
- Bodeker Scientific
- University of Canterbury
- UK Met Office
Other Processes and Observations funded projects:
- Antarctic sea ice
- Melting ice in the NZESM
- Clouds & aerosols over the Southern Ocean
- Assessing and validating the NZESM using modern and historical observations
- Sulfate aerosols over the Southern Ocean
- The Southern Ocean in a warming world
- 4D drones to measure Antarctic clouds, snow & ice, led by University of Canterbury
- Carbon dioxide & the Southern Ocean
- Taking the Pulse of the Ross Sea Outflow
Have a look at all Deep South Challenge Projects
Latest news and updates
The recent Edgecumbe floods saw raw sewage floating through the streets, making the clean-up extremely challenging. Over 300 homes in the district were damaged and six months later, 240 houses are still unliveable. Flood-proofing the town itself remains a distant goal.
The Deep South Challenge announces new research into who should bear the cost of our changing climate, and when.
All over New Zealand, from Haumoana to Westport, from Edgecumbe to the Kāpiti Coast, from Dunedin to Wellington City, homeowners and businesses are starting to feel the financial effects of climate change.
Susan Livengood is the Partnerships Director of the Deep South Challenge, and works within the Engagement programme – which tries to connect what’s happening in every programme of the challenge with both the broader public and with targeted individuals and organisations throughout New Zealand’s public and private sectors.